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Sunday, February 11, 2007

High risk of housing BUST

Kitchen Linker doesn't like writing about the housing bubble, but sometimes the facts are too much. Take this paragraph from the San Jose Mercury News story on a National Association of Realtors survey:
The highest loan-to-value ratios for first-time buyers were in the South, where the median mortgage was 100 percent of the sale price. In the West, the median was 99 percent, in the Midwest 98 percent, and in the East, 96 percent.

By comparison, the typical repeat home buyer nationwide invested a median 16 percent as a down payment to purchase a replacement home -- typically from the proceeds of a prior sale -- and financed the remaining 84 percent.

Kitchen-mates, a price decline over the next year or two is going to put millions of home "owners" under water. Any increase in unemployment is going to send millions to the hills, or rather cheap apartments and parent's homes (think abut that recursively). Result: housing BUST.

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